Fossil Fuel Depletion

Summary | What are fossil fuels? | Their Use | The crisis | The future | References | Link

Summary

What are fossil fuels?

The origin of oil.

The picture illustrates the origin of oil. Organic matter of biological origin and mineral sediments are deposited at the bottom of the sea or marshy fields, producing the so-called source rock. Oxygen dissipates. The gradual subsidence of the source rock causes the temperature and pressure to rise. These factors, along with the action of anaerobic thermophilic micro-organisms, slowly change the organic matter into hydrocarbons. From the source rock, where these processes take place, hydrocarbons can pass to contiguous rocks, the reservoir rocks, where they are stored.

Use of fossil fuels

We are using up the fuels that were made more than 300 million years ago. After we use up this non-renewable energy source, it's gone until natural processes create more-over a few hundred million more years. Occasionally, during human history, somebody, somewhere on the planet, discovered an outcrop of coal or a pool of tar. This usually involved burning it . Mostly, the fossil fuels were untouched until 1200 AD. Then, the people who lived in Europe's vast, dense forests had a wood-based civilization, but extensive cutting had caused trees to become scarcer, and some folks began to burn coal for fuel. Ever since that first oil well punched into the earth in 1859, demand for crude oil has equalled supply. The more oil that was pumped worldwide (an average 2-5% more each year), the more got used. The oil-using life-style made consumers feel richer and more comfortable-more pharmaceuticals, more plastics, more transportation, more heat, more cooling, more entertainment. Most of the planet's current population of 6 billion people prefer the industrialized life-style. Also, most are now dependent on fossil-fuelled agriculture to eat.

Fig.2 Global energy consumption by fuel type (2001)	Fig.3 What’s in a barrel of oil

The crisis

Of all the problems generated by fossil fuel use, the most challenging will be surviving the withdrawal from that use, after worldwide oil production peaks and begins to decline. The oil crisis will begin when demand for oil consistently begins to exceed supply. The transition from oil-technology back to non-oil-technology, and its accompanying labour-intensive, materially-poor life, will begin after world oil production peaks. M. King Hubbert, an oil scientist with a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago who taught seven years at Columbia University, then researched twenty-five years for Shell Oil, then years more for the United States Geological Service, repeatedly warned that the fossil fuel era would soon be over and urged us to prepare for that inevitable transition. In 1956, the United States was the world's largest oil producer, supplying its own and half the world's oil.

That year, Hubbert predicted (despite efforts by Shell brass to shut him up) that the rate of U.S. oil production in the lower 48 states would eventually look like a bell-shaped curve, and that it would reach its maximum, topmost peak of that curve between 1965 and 1972, thereafter to inexorably drop, year after year. He was ignored, criticized, or denied—but he was right. In 1970, crude oil production in the lower 48 states peaked at 9 million barrels a day. Since then production has gradually dropped. After Hubbert's prediction came true in 1970, he—and an increasing number of other oil scientists, as time went on—strove to predict the year when the world's oil supply would peak. In 1999, oil geologists estimated that ninety percent of global oil deposits had been located. In 2003, there were no new oil field discoveries. Years ago, based on the oil field discovery curve, Hubbert predicted that world oil production would peak after the turn of the century. All experts agree that world oil production will peak before the year 2015. What happens then?

The future

We, or some generation or other of our descendants, will have to face weaning from fossil fuels. Whenever it happens, who will do without fossil fuel—its energy and its products? What form will that competition take? In the best case scenario, there will be a worldwide shift from fossil fuel technologies to a combination of pre-petroleum and post-petroleum renewable energy technologies (we have the advantage of a century of rapid scientific discovery)—and we do this before our planet's climate and environment are irreparably damaged. To help us adapt to the coming cutbacks, we can learn from people who have expertise in pre-petroleum technologies: use of draft animals, natural gardening, cottage industries, as well as renewable energy experts. The bad news is that even the best of combined pre-petroleum and renewable energy technologies cannot produce the lavish amounts of energy we're accustomed to using.
Here (fig.4 and 5) is the probable future may bring to the U.S. after Hubbert's worldwide peak, in accordance with the Olduvai theory ( Duncan 1989).

Fig.4 - Estimation of per capita energy use vs years

As shown in the picture, the life-expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than one-hundred (100) years, if Industrial Civilization doesn't evolve. The following phases can be considered:

• Pre Industrial Phase (c. 3 000 000 BC to 1765)
  • A - Tool making (c. 3 000 000 BC)
  • B - Fire used (c. 1 000 000 BC)
  • C - Neolithic agricultural revolution (c. 8 000 BC)
  • D - Watts steam engine of 1765 Industrial Phase (1930-2025)
• Industrial Phase (1930 to 2025, estimated)
  • E - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value
  • F - Peak energy-use
  • G - Present energy-use
  • H - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value
• Post Industrial Phase (c. 2100 and beyond)
  • J, K, and L = Recurring future attempts at industrialization fail.

Other scenarios are also possible.

Fig.5 The Olduvai theory ( Duncan 1989)

The Olduvai theory ( Duncan 1989) states that the life-expectancy of Industrial Civilization, defined in terms of world energy use per capita (e), is less than or equal to 100 years. “HISTORY”: We know that the peak of (e) occurred in 1979 and that (e) declined from 1979 to 1999 (the 'slope'). “FUTURE”: The Olduvai theory predicts that (e) will decline even faster from 2000 to the so-named 'cliff event' (the 'slide'). The 'cliff event' is forecast to occur in year 2012.

References

Link

http://www.archiviostampa.it/it/articoli/index.aspx?c=1503
http://www.aspoitalia.net/documenti/bardi/petroliointroduzione/petroliointroduzione.htm
http://www.bfsf.info/wws/d_read/bfsf/Documenti/crisicheverra.pdf
http://www.carta.org/rivista/settimanale/2004/01/01GubbiottiPesacane.htm
http://www.ecoage.it/petrolio-ottocento.htm
http://www.energoclub.it/a/petrolio.htm
http://finanza.espressonline.it/scripts/cligipsw.dll?app=KWF&tpl=kwfinanza%5Cdettaglio_news.tpl&del=20051207&fonte=LFN&codnews=43217
http://www.lenntech.com/italiano/Effetto-serra/combustibili-fossili.htm
http://www.minerva.unito.it/Epistemologia&Etica/CrisiUomoNatura/Crisi5.htm
http://www.storiadimilano.it/citta/milanotecnica/strade/asfalto.htm
http://ulisse.sissa.it/Answer.jsp?questionCod=118751355
http://www.vasonline.it/home/editoriali/petrolio
http://www.wwf.it/lavoro/campagne/clima/documenti/Cambiamo%20Energia.pdf

http://www.carlaemery.com/fossil-fuel.htm
http://dieoff.org/
http://www.energyquest.ca.gov/story/index.html#table The Energy Story - Chapter 8 Fossil Fuels - Coal, Oil and Natural Gas.htm
http://solutions.synearth.net/stories/storyReader$8

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